Bills Projected to Win First Super Bowl as Vikings Take Top NFC Seed

Stephen Oh, an analytics expert for CBS Sports, has run simulations for the 178 games remaining in the 2026 NFL regular and postseason schedules. The model projects the Buffalo Bills to win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. This marks the first time since the season began that the Bills appear as the projected champions. The team currently holds a 12.97 percent chance of winning the title according to the data.

The projection has shifted significantly following the results of Week 7. The Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers both lost their games last week, upending the previous top seed predictions. The Chiefs, now 5-1, are projected to take the AFC West title. The 49ers, now 6-1, are projected to win the NFC West. The loss allowed the Minnesota Vikings to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Minnesota is the only team in the league with a perfect 6-0 record.

In the AFC, the Bills are projected as the division winner in the AFC East. The Jacksonville Jaguars are projected to win the AFC South. The Cincinnati Bengals are projected to take the AFC North title. The model places the Bengals above the Cleveland Browns, who are projected to finish with an 8-9 record. The Browns have not won a division title since 1989. The only remaining road game for the Bengals against a team with a winning record is against the Browns in Week 13.

The NFC East projection features a tight race between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants. The model assigns the Cowboys a 38.5 percent probability of winning the division. The Giants are close behind with a 37.3 percent chance. The Cowboys benefit from having the fourth easiest remaining strength of schedule. The NFC North is projected to send only three teams to the playoffs. The Green Bay Packers are projected to miss the postseason, despite all four teams in the division currently holding playoff positions.

The wild card round is projected to feature high-scoring contests. The Chiefs are projected to defeat the Baltimore Ravens 26-20. The Jaguars are projected to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 25-20. The Denver Broncos are projected to upset the Bengals 24-23. In the NFC, the 49ers are projected to beat the Chicago Bears 27-24. The Seattle Seahawks are projected to defeat the Atlanta Falcons 24-21. The Detroit Lions are projected to beat the Cowboys 33-30.

The divisional round would see the Bills defeat the Broncos 26-20 in Buffalo. The Chiefs are projected to beat the Jaguars 23-21. The Vikings are projected to defeat the Seahawks 20-17. The 49ers are projected to beat the Lions 29-28. These results would leave the Bills, Chiefs, Vikings, and 49ers as the four remaining teams.

The AFC Championship is projected to end the Bills' streak of losses to the Chiefs. The model shows Buffalo winning 28-23. The NFC Championship would see the Vikings defeat the 49ers 23-20. The Super Bowl is scheduled for SoFi Stadium. The Bills are projected to win 26-21 over the Vikings.

The Bills and Vikings are both 0-4 in previous Super Bowl appearances. The model places the Vikings as the second favorite to win the championship with an 11.15 percent chance. The Chiefs hold a 9.5 percent chance, followed by the 49ers at 8.4 percent and the Jaguars at 8.3 percent. No other team has a higher than 8 percent probability of winning the title.

The next scheduled step in the simulation process will follow the conclusion of Week 8 games. The analytics team will update the probabilities based on the new results. The current projection stands as the official forecast until new data is available.