Pentagon Forbids Troops From Wagering on Sensitive Military Outcomes

The Department of Defense has barred military personnel from using nonpublic information to place wagers on prediction markets, a move designed to prevent hostile nations from gleaning intelligence on upcoming operations through financial platforms. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a directive to senior Pentagon leadership, Combatant Command leaders, and field activity directors on October 20. The memo, which was made public earlier this week, establishes a strict prohibition on financial transactions related to military outcomes when informed by internal knowledge.

Hegseth warned that enemy intelligence services monitor movements in financial markets to anticipate military actions. When an American Service member, intelligence professional, or other Department civilian engages in a financial transaction on a military outcome, they create a signal. That signal can be aggregated, correlated, and exploited by hostile foreign intelligence services to anticipate our movements, targets, and timing, the memo stated. Hegseth added that the lives of Service members often depend on the enemy not knowing what is coming.

The directive explicitly prohibits any financial transaction informed by nonpublic information, regardless of whether that information is classified or unclassified. This restriction applies to all financial platforms, including traditional betting services and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Hegseth wrote that the men and women who carry our flag into harm's way deserve a Force that protects them, not one that exposes them to the enemy for personal gain.

The warning follows a series of recent incidents involving military personnel and gambling platforms. In April, a US Army soldier was arrested and charged with using confidential information to place $410,000 in bets on Polymarket regarding the timing of the military's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Furthermore, an August report by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective found 152 suspicious wallets that placed longshot bets on military and defense markets. Those accounts won a combined $8 million.

The subject line of the memo, titled Do Not Compromise Military Operations for Personal Financial Gain, reflects a broader concern regarding the intersection of personal finance and operational security. By restricting access to nonpublic data for wagering purposes, the Department of Defense aims to close a channel through which sensitive operational details might be inferred or confirmed. The prohibition extends to all Department civilians and intelligence professionals.

As of Thursday, October 23, the directive is in effect across the Defense Department. The policy seeks to eliminate financial incentives that could lead to unauthorized disclosures or provide a cover for the dissemination of classified information. Hegseth's memo emphasized that the protection of the Force and its personnel requires strict adherence to these guidelines to prevent adversaries from exploiting financial data to anticipate American movements, targets, and timing.