Notre Dame favored to cover against Navy in Week 9 matchup
Bookmakers list the fifth ranked Fighting Irish as 30.5 point favorites for a noon kickoff at Gillette Stadium.
By Adam Lin ·
The college football betting market has placed the fifth ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish as heavy favorites against the Navy Midshipmen on Saturday. The Irish are listed at 30.5 points, which makes them the biggest favorite of the upcoming Week 9 slate. The over/under for total points is set at 56.5.
The teams meet at noon Eastern Time at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. The venue is home to the New England Patriots of the NFL. Notre Dame enters the game after sitting out last week. The break follows an upset loss at BYU in Week 7 that dropped the Irish to a 6-1 record. Navy is 2-5 overall and 1-4 in the American Conference. The Midshipmen lost to North Texas and UTSA in their two previous games.
The SportsLine projection model simulated this matchup 10,000 times to generate its prediction. The model favors the Under 56.5. The computer projects a total of 50 combined points. This side of the total hits in 67% of the simulations. The model also identifies one side of the spread that covers in well over 60% of the runs.
Notre Dame’s defensive metrics drive the projection for a lower scoring game. The Irish are tied for fourth nationally in scoring defense. They allow just 13.4 points per game. Navy ranks seventh in the American Conference for scoring offense. The Midshipmen average 29.7 points per game.
The Navy offense relies heavily on the run game. The team averages 308 rushing yards per contest. That ranks third nationally. This style of play keeps the clock running. It also plays into a specific weakness of the Irish defense. Notre Dame ranks third nationally in rushing defense. The Fighting Irish give up only 67 yards per game on the ground.
The SportsLine model has a record of 68 wins and 59 losses on top rated college football picks leading into Week 9. Players who followed those picks would have seen a return of nearly $400 on a $100 stake. Both teams have seen the Over hit in five of their last seven games this season.
The kickoff time remains fixed at noon ET. The odds and spread are locked for the early Saturday slot. The model’s specific spread pick is available through SportsLine. The prediction rests on the disparity between the Irish defensive efficiency and the Navy running game.
Source: CBS Sports
