Israelis Face Tuesday Ballot With One-Third Still Undecided

Israeli voters will cast their ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in a race that determines whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government completes its full term. Inside the Likud party, members are divided on the outcome, with some expressing confidence and others worrying about a surge in opposition turnout.

The timeline of uncertainty began as internal polls by Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud’s data, pointed to a tight contest. A party source described the split among officials: “We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so.” The source noted that Filber’s predictions were decisive, stating, “Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other.”

Tensions have risen due to activity by nonprofits and organizations supporting candidates opposed to Netanyahu. Party sources say these groups have directed large sums of money into a campaign that included social media ads, street signs, field events, and transportation for Arab voters. They also reported efforts to bring Israelis living abroad back to the country to vote. One Likud source called it “the nonprofits affair on steroids,” arguing the groups created a support network outside standard party financing rules, though no documentation of the funding amounts was provided.

Likud has also criticized the Central Elections Committee. The party claims the committee focused heavily on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resource use while paying less attention to the work of these outside organizations.

As the vote approaches, Likud is organizing a large ground operation for Election Day. The party is working to keep right-wing votes from shifting to smaller lists, despite restrictions on gathering information from polling stations. In a bid to unify the right, Likud attempted to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to drop out of the race. Winter, a former commander of the Givati Brigade who leads the People of Israel party, remained in the race after talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan. Sadan later issued a statement supporting Winter.

The party is also courting supporters of other right-wing tickets, including the joint list of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud. During those talks, lawmakers discussed a bill that would allow the party to name a deputy minister. A survey published just days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters had not yet decided who to support.