California Ballot: $300 Million Campaign Against Billionaire Asset Tax

California voters face a record spending battle on November 3 to determine if a one-time 5 percent tax on billionaire assets will pass. The opposition has raised more than $300 million, creating the most expensive ballot measure fight in state history. In contrast, supporters have collected only $32 million. This disparity defines the conflict between high-net-worth individuals and the electorate.

The measure, known as Prop 40, was introduced to tax the estimated $2.3 trillion in wealth held by the state's billionaires. Opponents include Google co-founder Sergey Brin, DoorDash founder Tony Xu, Stripe co-founder Patrick Collison, and venture capitalists John Doerr, Michael Moritz, and Vinod Khosla. Ripple co-executive chairman Chris Larsen also contributes to the anti-tax effort. Mark Zuckerberg did not donate money, but Meta filings show he plans to move out of state to avoid the levy. The board approved a new share class to facilitate his exit without impacting the stock.

The heavy spending has generated confusion among voters. Brian Galle, an economics professor at UC Berkeley who helped draft the proposal, received a flyer claiming the tax applies to retirement savings. He stated those terms were not in the original text. Ashley Craig, a volunteer for Patriotic Millionaires, reports that voters frequently ask about secret provisions. Galle noted that changing the tax would require a two-thirds majority in the assembly.

Political analysts view the fight as a test of progressive strength. David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University, described the vote as a proxy battle between progressives and moderates. A win could inspire similar proposals in the 2028 presidential race. A loss might allow backers to blame moderates and target big tech. Galle argued the spending demonstrates the inequality the tax aims to fix, citing the Citizens United ruling. Francesco Trebbi, a business professor at Berkeley, called the contest "Sergey Brin v millions of Californians."

Democrats are split on the issue. The state party endorses the tax, but Craig said she has received little ground support from the organization. Governor Gavin Newsom, who is considering a 2028 run, opposes the measure as "poorly written." He warns it could drive billionaires away. Gubernatorial candidate Xavier Becerra and former congresswoman Katie Porter also oppose the tax.

Opponents are backing two additional ballot measures to block the tax. One would bar new state taxes on personal property or retroactive taxes. The other requires state auditors to review tax impacts before a vote. If either measure receives more votes than Prop 40, it could negate the asset tax even if voters approve it. A recent Public Policy Institute of California poll shows voters narrowly support the tax but also back the blocking measures.

Mark Baldassare, the institute's survey director, noted that only about one-third of citizen initiatives pass, placing the burden on the yes side. Suzane Jiminez, chief of staff at the SEIU health workers union, reported that 3,000 volunteers are knocking on doors. She said Senator Bernie Sanders and Congressman Ro Khanna have rallied support across the state. The state guide explaining the measures is currently being distributed to voters.