House Control Likely to Flip as Midterm Election Approaches

Republican candidates face steep odds of losing control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections.

The president’s party has lost seats in midterm elections 17 of the 19 times since World War II. The average loss is 26 seats. When a president’s approval rating dips below 50 percent, the average loss climbs to 35 seats. President Trump’s approval rating has been below that threshold for much of his second term.

Voter sentiment reflects economic strain. A recent poll by NPR, PBS News, and Marist found that 44 percent of respondents said their financial situation had stayed the same. Another 38 percent reported a worsening situation. Only 15 percent said their finances improved. Voters cite rising prices on goods and energy, partly driven by tariffs and the conflict with Iran, as primary concerns.

Democrats have performed well in recent off-year and special elections. They are currently favored to win the House and are within striking distance of gaining the Senate. This stands in contrast to the start of the cycle, when a Senate win was considered unlikely.

Structural factors complicate the forecast for Democrats. The Cook Political Report identifies roughly 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018. Mid-decade redistricting has also benefited the GOP. An NPR analysis estimates Republicans gained an eight-seat advantage through new district maps. Trump pushed state legislatures to draw maps that favored his party.

Turnout will determine the final margin of victory. Trump has traveled to red states to urge his base to vote. Without high Republican participation, a small Democratic gain in the Senate could expand to six or seven seats. Democrats are also energized by voters who view the election as a check on the president. In the latest poll, 44 percent of respondents said their vote was against Trump, while 21 percent voted for him.

Election results may not be final for days or weeks in close races. Trump has already signaled he may challenge outcomes if they do not favor his party. A quarter of Republicans in the latest poll said their candidate likely should not accept the results. Most voters across parties believe state elections will be fair and that candidates should accept the outcome.