Data centers drive US power sector emissions up 42 percent

New analysis projects a sharp rise in US carbon dioxide output from the power sector by the end of the decade.

The Sierra Club estimates that electricity generation will release 618 million more tons of carbon dioxide in 2030 than in 2025. This represents a 42 percent increase in planet-heating pollution. The additional output is roughly equivalent to the annual electricity use of 128,788,523 homes.

Data centers and crypto mines are the primary drivers of this surge. The Sierra Club figure exceeds earlier academic forecasts, which predicted a 28 percent increase in 2030 if data center demand grew. The final number depends on how many planned projects are completed and what energy sources power them.

Net US greenhouse gas emissions fell from a peak of 6.58 billion metric tons in 2007 to 5.35 billion metric tons in 2025. However, that downward trend reversed last year as electricity demand climbed. The Trump administration is currently incentivizing fossil fuel infrastructure for these facilities while rolling back pollution rules and stalling renewable energy projects.

The Environmental Defense Fund reported this month that the US is planning to build more fossil fuel capacity than it has in a decade. This buildout aims to meet the growing power needs of data centers.

The Sierra Club’s findings indicate that the new gas plants will effectively wipe out 15 years of greenhouse gas reductions in the power sector.